States urged to cooperate on COVID-19 mitigation

A spatiotemporal map showing the state’s NPI score over time shows the non-uniformity of the state’s response. Each limit exceeded a maximum of 1 point. If all five categories had a 100% limit, the state’s maximum score was 5 points (that is, completely closed or extreme limits, depending on the category). The darker the color of the report, the higher the NPI limit (the higher the score). Credit: DOI: 10.1101 / 2021.07.28.21261286

Non-pharmaceutical interventions are effective in limiting the spread of COVID-19, but individual states must consider their geographic neighbors for successful mitigation strategies, and the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) insist on a new analysis by scientists.

The study also found that these interventions required at least 3 to 4 weeks to have a measurable effect in controlling the spread of COVID-19.

Given the urgent need for high-quality data to signal public health readiness for the potential of a new wave of coronavirus infection, researchers from Pitt and CMU have published their findings on the website preprint medRxiv. Published and announced today the results ahead of peer-reviewed publication.

Dr Cima Rakdawara, Associate Professor of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics at the Pitt School of Medicine, said: “In the face of SARS-CoV-2 infection and increasing suboptimal vaccination rates It is important to identify strategies that can reduce virus-related hospitalizations.

Months after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, states across the country implemented various strategies to control the spread of the virus. To compare the different interventions and determine which strategy was most effective, Rakdawara and his colleagues collaborated with Dr Rebecca Newgent, Professor Stephen E. and Professor Joys Fienberg and Statistics from the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences at Dietrich College. of Humanities and we partnered with the head of the data science department. CMU and other scientists from CMU’s Faculty of Statistics and Data Science. They refined the government of the states.

The analysis shows that, of course, stronger statewide interventions between March 2020 and March 2021, such as universal masking obligations, collection restrictions, restaurant and bar closures, are COVID-. It was found to be associated with a reduction in deaths from 19.

Of the 23 states that implemented a strong combination of the above three measures, only about 35% had death rates above the national average. In contrast, of the 28 least demanding states Mitigation strategy The death rate of nearly 75% was above the national average.

Scientists have also found neighboring states are on different response strategies and coronavirus restrictions have tracked similar cases of COVID-19 and warned that public health authorities should pay attention to neighboring states.

“Several groups in geographically close states, such as the Midwest, have found similar patterns in the number of cases, despite different mitigation strategies,” Nugent said. Declared. “The clustering we’ve observed may correlate with environmental conditions such as temperature and humidity, but we think it’s likely a reflection of the mix of travel.”

The researchers also found that it took almost a month to observe whether the intervention was having the desired effect on reducing COVID-19 cases.

“It is important to wait patiently when monitoring the effectiveness of public health interventions. There was a three to four week delay between performing the procedure and the onset of its effectiveness, ”Nugent said. to augment. “It is important not to raise the limit prematurely, as it may take some time to see the impact of the limit, and the number of cases increases before it is too late to stop the surge in the number of cases. case. You should consider implementing it early when you first start doing it. “

Researchers have created an interactive dashboard,, that reflects the dynamics of non-pharmaceutical response and implementation of COVID-19 cases. countries with low vaccination rates.

“Vaccines remain the only and most effective way to control the spread of the virus and get us out of this pandemic,” said Rakdawara, also a member of Pitt’s Vaccine Research Center. “But it’s not just the vaccine strategy that we can use. Simple interventions such as the Universal Masking Mandate are very effective in controlling the spread of this deadly virus and should be used when other options are not available. ”

Regional policies may not be effective in eliminating risk factors for the spread of the coronavirus in the region, according to the analysis.

For more information:
Annika J. Avery et al, State variations in non-pharmaceutical interventions correlate with outcomes of COVID-19 disease, (2021). DOI: 10.1101 / 2021.07.28.21261286

Provided by
Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pittsburgh

Quote: COVID-19 state mitigation obtained on August 23, 2021 from https: // (August 23, 2021) Has been invited to cooperate with

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