US election polls: Trump SEVEN points ahead in swing state of Iowa

Donald Trump has taken the lead in key Iowa state, poll suggests he has a slim chance of causing another huge upheaval.

Investigation for the Des Moines Register showed the president was seven points ahead of Joe Biden on election day.

The same late poll in 2016 was one of the few to show that Mr. Trump could win the White House. This gave him a seven-point lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton, which became a 9.6-point victory.

The inquiry will worry Democrats who fear Mr Biden will suffer the same fate as Clinton, also the big favorite.

Investigation for the Des Moines Register showed the president was seven points ahead of Joe Biden with one day before the election

Investigation for the Des Moines Register showed the president was seven points ahead of Joe Biden with one day before the election

Supporters await US President Donald Trump's rally at Hickory Regional Airport in Hickory, North Carolina, USA yesterday

Supporters await US President Donald Trump’s rally at Hickory Regional Airport in Hickory, North Carolina, USA yesterday

Supporters await US President Donald Trump's rally at Hickory Regional Airport in Hickory, North Carolina, USA yesterday

Supporters await US President Donald Trump’s rally at Hickory Regional Airport in Hickory, North Carolina, USA yesterday

Supporters await US President Donald Trump's rally at Hickory Regional Airport in Hickory, North Carolina, USA yesterday

Supporters await US President Donald Trump’s rally at Hickory Regional Airport in Hickory, North Carolina, USA yesterday

Supporters await US President Donald Trump's rally at Hickory Regional Airport in Hickory yesterday

Supporters await US President Donald Trump’s rally at Hickory Regional Airport in Hickory yesterday

He’s up about seven points overall in the polls, and there’s no doubt that – like her four years ago – he will win considerably more votes than Mr. Trump. However, the outcome of the election will not be decided at the national level, but by a handful of states on the battlefield.

Over the past campaign weekend, the two candidates broke into the Swing States with a particular focus on Pennsylvania. It’s one of ten last won by Mr. Trump and he has to keep most of them if he is to stay in the White House.

Mr. Biden leads in nearly all of those states, but his edge is slim and declining.

Together, they represent 179 Electoral College votes and Mr Biden is due to collect 38 in addition to the 2016 Clinton loot.

US President Donald Trump attends a campaign rally at Dubuque Regional Airport in Dubuque, Iowa, United States yesterday

US President Donald Trump attends a campaign rally at Dubuque Regional Airport in Dubuque, Iowa, United States yesterday

President Donald Trump greets supporters as he arrives at a campaign rally at Dubuque Regional Airport yesterday in Iowa

President Donald Trump greets supporters as he arrives at a campaign rally at Dubuque Regional Airport yesterday in Iowa

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attends US President Donald Trump's campaign rally at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport in Opa-Locka

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attends US President Donald Trump’s campaign rally at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport in Opa-Locka

Trump wrapped up his five-state, five-rally tour on Sunday night by landing in Miami, Fla. Just after 11:30 p.m., where it was 79 degrees.  People await the arrival of US President Donald Trump for his campaign event at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport on November 1

Trump wrapped up his five-state, five-rally tour on Sunday night by landing in Miami, Fla. Just after 11:30 p.m., where it was 79 degrees. People await the arrival of US President Donald Trump for his campaign event at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport on November 1

If Mr. Trump can keep enough of the big states – like Texas with 38 votes, Florida with 29, Pennsylvania with 20, and Ohio with 18 – then Mr. Biden might find it difficult to compensate elsewhere.

Iowa is one of the few swing states where Mr. Trump has gone ahead, and the Register poll shows he is becoming important. He’s 48% versus 41% for Mr Biden – the same poll in September showed them tied for 47.

A RealClearPolitics (RCP) poll average gives Mr Trump a 0.7% lead in Iowa.

He has yet to achieve the same feat in enough other swing states and is still four points behind in Pennsylvania. Yesterday he tweeted: “Our numbers are VERY good everywhere. Sleepy Joe is already starting to withdraw from some states. The radical left is crumbling!

Crowds await the arrival of US President Donald Trump for his campaign event at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport on November 1 in Opa Locka, Florida

Crowds await the arrival of US President Donald Trump for his campaign event at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport on November 1 in Opa Locka, Florida

People await the arrival of US President Donald Trump for his campaign event at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport

People await the arrival of US President Donald Trump for his campaign event at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport

President Trump continues to campaign against Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden until election day on November 3 (pictured in Florida

President Trump continues to campaign against Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden until election day on November 3 (pictured in Florida

While polls have consistently shown Trump to be tied or behind in major swing states, the president said he didn't really need to make his last two stops of the night - in Georgia and then Florida.

While polls have consistently shown Trump to be tied or behind in major swing states, the president said he didn’t really need to make his last two stops of the night – in Georgia and then Florida.

The president’s path to victory involves retaining and strengthening his 2016 electoral base, but polls show he is hemorrhaging support among women and retirees. As a result, he relentlessly focused his efforts on highly targeted states in order to be able to garner the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory.

Mr Trump must retain all the southern states he won in 2016, including Arizona, Florida and Georgia, where he is respectively 1%, 0.7% and 0.8% behind.

If the president also retains two or three of the five Mid West “rust belt” states he won from Democrats in 2016, then he has a path back to the White House. He’s behind three, including Michigan, which he last won by seven points.

Political strategist Mike Madrid, one of the founders of the Lincoln Project, a Republican group opposed to Mr. Trump, said: “If he has a dramatic outperformance … I could easily see them win North Carolina and Florida.” .

US President Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally in Rome, Georgia, United States, November 1

US President Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally in Rome, Georgia, United States, November 1

At another point in the rally, he commented on Biden's silhouette.

At another point in the rally, he commented on Biden’s silhouette. “His legs have become very thin,” Trump said at the event in Florida

A sea of ​​MAGA hats and Trump 2020 flags could be seen at the fourth stop of the campaign rally in Rome, Georgia

A sea of ​​MAGA hats and Trump 2020 flags could be seen at the fourth stop of the campaign rally in Rome, Georgia

People applaud as President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at the Hickory Regional Airport on November 1, 2020 in Hickory, North Carolina

People applaud as President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at the Hickory Regional Airport on November 1, 2020 in Hickory, North Carolina

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